Clinton takes New Hampshire – but Equal in Delegates and Losing in Educated Votes

January 9, 2008

It’s old news by now, but Clinton has won the popular vote in New Hampshire. Jason is right – it’s time New Hampshire changed their motto. The former president’s wife beat Obama by 2% of the vote to win the early state. On the Republican side, McCain beat Romney by a comfortable 6%; as Errington Thompson says, Romney is the real loser here.. Getting back to the primaries, are the two victories unconnected? I think not. Obama and McCain both benefit from the support of a majority of independent voters. That the media portrayed Obama as the clear favourite before the election must have resulted in these independents deciding that he didn’t need their support, and instead shifting their votes to McCain. The good news here is that Obama hasn’t lost the support of these voters that carried him in Iowa, they simply thought he could win without their support. Optimism with a dash of hope leads me to believe that these voters will return to back Obama in the coming primaries, (e.g. South Carolina). The bad news here is that independents cannot vote in the Democratic primaries in many states to come.

Hillary’s made a lot of ruckus about the parallels between her victory in New Hampshire and that of her husband, which resulted in him winning the nomination. However, the opposition that she faces is very different from what her husband faced – voters have a clear figure to rally around this year in Obama, (Edwards’s definite defeat in this primary might result in some of his supporters shifting their support to Obama simply to keep Hillary out). Clinton the First did not face such a unified opposition.

Finally, and perhaps very importantly, both Hillary and Obama walk away from this election with 9 delegates, meaning that Obama is still ahead in elected delegates. See this post for videos of the post-primary speeches of both candidates. And if you want more on the New Hampshire primary, see this informative analysis.

– Nishant

PS: 39% of college graduates voted for Obama, 5% more than those who voted for Hillary.


Mitt Romney wins Wyoming GOP Caucus

January 5, 2008

    With 58% of precincts reporting, Mitt Romney has all but won the Wyoming GOP Caucuses – he has received the support of 75% of the state with 67% of the precincts reporting. Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson each have 13% support. Even if the rest of the state unanimously supports Fred Thompson, Romney will still win (by my calculations – I give no guarantee that these are correct).

I’m slightly relieved here – while he isn’t what I’d consider a ‘good candidate’, well, as long as Huckabee doesn’t win.

– Nishant