January 9, 2008
It’s old news by now, but Clinton has won the popular vote in New Hampshire. Jason is right – it’s time New Hampshire changed their motto. The former president’s wife beat Obama by 2% of the vote to win the early state. On the Republican side, McCain beat Romney by a comfortable 6%; as Errington Thompson says, Romney is the real loser here.. Getting back to the primaries, are the two victories unconnected? I think not. Obama and McCain both benefit from the support of a majority of independent voters. That the media portrayed Obama as the clear favourite before the election must have resulted in these independents deciding that he didn’t need their support, and instead shifting their votes to McCain. The good news here is that Obama hasn’t lost the support of these voters that carried him in Iowa, they simply thought he could win without their support. Optimism with a dash of hope leads me to believe that these voters will return to back Obama in the coming primaries, (e.g. South Carolina). The bad news here is that independents cannot vote in the Democratic primaries in many states to come.
Hillary’s made a lot of ruckus about the parallels between her victory in New Hampshire and that of her husband, which resulted in him winning the nomination. However, the opposition that she faces is very different from what her husband faced – voters have a clear figure to rally around this year in Obama, (Edwards’s definite defeat in this primary might result in some of his supporters shifting their support to Obama simply to keep Hillary out). Clinton the First did not face such a unified opposition.
Finally, and perhaps very importantly, both Hillary and Obama walk away from this election with 9 delegates, meaning that Obama is still ahead in elected delegates. See this post for videos of the post-primary speeches of both candidates. And if you want more on the New Hampshire primary, see this informative analysis.
PS: 39% of college graduates voted for Obama, 5% more than those who voted for Hillary.
January 8, 2008
As Jason reports, Obama has come out with a clear lead in the first two towns in New Hampshire to report their results. He’s beaten Clinton by 9 votes to 3 in one, and Edwards by 7 votes to 2 in the other. On the Republican side, McCain has taken the towns, though by a smaller margin, beating Romney by 4 votes to 2 in the first town. It’s even closer in the second town, where he just won by 6 votes to Huckabee’s 5 – and Ron Paul in third place with 4 votes! Hopefully a good sign of things to come.
January 5, 2008
With 58% of precincts reporting, Mitt Romney has all but won the Wyoming GOP Caucuses – he has received the support of 75% of the state with 67% of the precincts reporting. Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson each have 13% support. Even if the rest of the state unanimously supports Fred Thompson, Romney will still win (by my calculations – I give no guarantee that these are correct).
I’m slightly relieved here – while he isn’t what I’d consider a ‘good candidate’, well, as long as Huckabee doesn’t win.
January 4, 2008
Again, most of you probably know that Huckabee won the Iowa Republican Caucus. Yes, I almost broke my TV as well when I heard. With 34% of the votes, he coasted through, beating Romney who came second with 25%. This post has the results for every candidate. However, as Bill Scher argues, Huckabee will still have to work in the primaries, considering that the Republicans might unite around a single candidate to keep him out. (Do they really want a candidate who may be committed to converting Jews to Christianity?)
However, Ron Paul broke into the double digits with 10% of the vote – 11,598 votes – which gives him two potential candidates. (Perhaps significantly, this is more than Giulani’s 4%). Slightly surprising, considering that these two polls put him at 7.1% and 6% respectively. See, young people without conventional home phones can make a difference. I suspect he would have gotten even more votes if independents hadn’t joined up with Obama in such force. Indeed, as this post points out, Ron Paul was the winner with independent voters.
So Ron Paul supporters should be optimistic – as they are. He scored two delegates in a super-religious state – New Hampshire’s views are much closer to his own. He has clearly distinguished himself from second-tier candidates.
Well, onwards to
New Hampshire Wyoming, with its January 5th convention – and then New Hampshire.