January 8, 2008
As Jason reports, Obama has come out with a clear lead in the first two towns in New Hampshire to report their results. He’s beaten Clinton by 9 votes to 3 in one, and Edwards by 7 votes to 2 in the other. On the Republican side, McCain has taken the towns, though by a smaller margin, beating Romney by 4 votes to 2 in the first town. It’s even closer in the second town, where he just won by 6 votes to Huckabee’s 5 – and Ron Paul in third place with 4 votes! Hopefully a good sign of things to come.
January 6, 2008
Very short post today, but you might want to read this. Here’s a tidbit of news that the media have kept away from. The full article, linked to, is a very good read and I recommend it to everyone.
Read the rest of this entry »
January 4, 2008
Again, most of you probably know that Huckabee won the Iowa Republican Caucus. Yes, I almost broke my TV as well when I heard. With 34% of the votes, he coasted through, beating Romney who came second with 25%. This post has the results for every candidate. However, as Bill Scher argues, Huckabee will still have to work in the primaries, considering that the Republicans might unite around a single candidate to keep him out. (Do they really want a candidate who may be committed to converting Jews to Christianity?)
However, Ron Paul broke into the double digits with 10% of the vote – 11,598 votes – which gives him two potential candidates. (Perhaps significantly, this is more than Giulani’s 4%). Slightly surprising, considering that these two polls put him at 7.1% and 6% respectively. See, young people without conventional home phones can make a difference. I suspect he would have gotten even more votes if independents hadn’t joined up with Obama in such force. Indeed, as this post points out, Ron Paul was the winner with independent voters.
So Ron Paul supporters should be optimistic – as they are. He scored two delegates in a super-religious state – New Hampshire’s views are much closer to his own. He has clearly distinguished himself from second-tier candidates.
Well, onwards to
New Hampshire Wyoming, with its January 5th convention – and then New Hampshire.
January 4, 2008
As most of you have probably heard by now, Obama won the Iowan Democratic Caucuses with 37.58% of the votes. This I expected, but the next bit of news surprised be: Edwards came second with 29.75%, inching out Clinton, who had 29.47%. That’s right, Clinton came last – party time! (This post has results for every candidate).
However, although this might make for good media fodder, Obama wont actually get too many more national delegates from Iowa. Due to the way in which they’re allocated, Obama will only claim 16 potential delegates from Iowa – and Hillary will claim 15, one more than Edward’s 14. Boo. (No other Democratic candidate got enough votes to claim national delegates). That’s right, an almost 8% winning margin in votes will translate to only one additional delegate for Obama compared to Clinton. Obama’s victory is something to celebrate, but the primaries are far from won, and it will take more hard work to keep Hillary out.
The record turnout is probably what clinched the victory for Obama – 220,588 voters participated this year, compared to 2004’s 124,000. A large percentage of the voters were people under 30 and independent voters, two groups that mainly supported Obama. And women, the support of which Clinton was banking on, split the vote between Clinton and Obama. Maybe they know that a woman running for president isn’t as big a deal as the media make it out to be.
Oh, and finally, here’s a story that is being swamped by the Iowa Caucus results – Democrats in Minnesota have captured a vacated Republican seat. A good day for the Democrats.
Onwards to New Hampshire!
January 4, 2008
So it might be a bit late for this, (considering that the Iowa caucus is already well underway in the US) but these are the candidates I’d vote for if I was an American citizen.
John Edwards Barack Obama
It’s a close one here – between Edwards and Obama that is, (sorry Hillary, you didn’t even come close to entering the picture). In the end, I’d have to go with Obama, simply because he has a greater chance of beating Hillary than Edwards does at the moment. Honestly I wouldn’t mind either of them being chosen. I like the Iowa system in this respect, because of the importance of a voter’s second choice of candidate.
Republicans: Ron Paul
No brainer here guys. Speaks honestly for smaller government, non-interventionism (not isolationism), and has the voting record to back up his words. Media is scared of him, (*cough* Fox News *cough*), but if he won it would be amazing.
So that’s it, just the quick obligatory US Elections post. For more on the Iowa caucus, this blog post predicts a Obama and Romney victory, and discusses the reasons for such a prediction.